By: James Vance
The $80M-plus Spencer Pratt LA mayoral betting fiasco exposes a gaping prediction market regulation flaw. These platforms claim they deliver accurate crowd-sourced forecasts. Paid influencer campaigns are now turning them into ready-made misinformation fuel. US regulators have long hesitated to crack down on election betting. This mess shows exactly what happens when that regulatory vacuum stays unfilled.
Kalshi’s mayoral winner market saw over $78 million in total trades, 75% of it placed on Pratt. His odds peaked at 26.3% last week, and now sit just above 1%. The platform’s related Pratt vote share market drew another $8 million in trades. Polymarket saw $5.7 million traded on Pratt, 10 times the volume for race leader Karen Bass. Polymarket spent at least $350,000 on influencer promotions between January 2025 and February 2026, as it pushes its US relaunch. Paid promoters pushed false election fraud claims to drive bets when Pratt’s odds dropped. One Polymarket promoter posted this on X on June 4, 2026:
(AsiaGameHub) – Notice how the mail-in ballots that come in last second always end up voting Democrat
Totally a coincidence, nothing to see here https://t.co/6bYH6kvLov
— Kangmin Lee | 이강민 (@kangminlee) June 4, 2026
Kalshi asked its promoters to remove similar posts citing affiliate policy violations, while Polymarket took no action on the content. Even former President Donald Trump echoed the false fraud claims on Truth Social, calling the election “crooked.”
The commercial loop here is impossible to miss. Platforms pay influencers to hype fringe candidates, draw in new bettors, and drive up transaction volume. They only rein in promoters when misinformation risks trigger regulatory scrutiny. US election oversight bodies will have to implement formal rules for election prediction markets by 2028, or every federal and state race will be flooded with paid conspiracy content designed to drive betting volume.
Author bio: James Vance, senior tech columnist at a leading international tech weekly, specializing in fintech regulation and Web3 policy.